to elaborate a little bit: the "glaring omission" i was referring to was Bernstein's omission of fossil fuel inputs as a primary factor leading to the explosion in productivity which began in 1820. consider this:
this productivity growth is so extreme compared to the rest of human history that it demands an explanation. as c2 notes in post #23717 on this thread, Bernstein explains this productivity explosion in terms of four inputs: land, labor, capital, and knowledge. he writes:
At some point in the nineteenth century in Europe and in the U.S., a "virtuous circle" came into being: Advances in technology begat improvements in productivity, which, in turn, begat increasing wealth, which then begat yet more capital to fuel still more technological progress. As the industrial economies increasingly employed highly productive capital and knowledge inputs, growth became self-sustaining and unstoppable.
so for Bernstein it is really all about technology and increased efficiency of capital formation in a virtuous circle.
my belief, which i think is consistent with yours and others familiar with peak oil, is that people since 1820 aren't that much smarter than all the humans before us. rather, the main thing that distinguishes the post-1820 period is, people started using fossil fuels to replace/enhance human and animal labor. early on in the industrial revolution it was all about coal, but then it expanded to petroleum and all the advantages liquid fuels offer for transportation. |
