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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 368.29

+0.6%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (56767)	10/22/2009 4:36:18 PM
From: energyplay	2 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 217573

60 k $ per ounce ? Maybe with a 20:1 (95%) drop in the value of the USD... But even with a 75% drop in the US Dollar value, so gold would be at 15 k in today's dollars - that price would be the extreme tail of the extreme tail, and even a 10k price could not last more than 3 days. World GDP per person is about 7k (2006) There is about 0.8 ounces of gold per person. Someone working streams in Northern California with a tiny dredge can recover about 0.5 - 1 ounce per month. I expect that the independent miners in Brazil, Africa, China, etc. can recover 0.20 to 2.0 per month - Let's use 0.5 ounce. So in one or two months the average gold miner would recover value equal to 15,000 current USD. A multiple of the per capita income in most countries. These high prices would result in 250 to 500 million people mining world wide...and about 100 million ounces recovered each month. At 60,000 per ounce, that would be 6 Trillion dollars. Even at 15,000, that would be 1.5 Trillion. About 3 months of this (1.5 T) would equivalent all of China's USD bond holdings. ***************** You are getting 60k by taking a YEAR's GDP etc. and dividing by the gold available. Assume that gold, or a gold backed currency, circulates...a reasonable turn over of 6 times per years means $10k, and 12 times per year means $5 k . *****

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