The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: ChanceIs who wrote (225853)	10/23/2009 8:14:50 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) of 306849

More AEI & Roubini Sorry, I left the best part of Roubini's comments out last night.... 'we have a huge (dollar based) carry trade going on ..... can make 30% ... it is the mother of all carry trades..' and.... 'we are in the mother of all assets bubbles' (he is talking now 10/09) 'the VAR is scary' Personal Comment: I will fill in Roubini's comments. In the carry trade,one borrows currency at extremely low rates from a country whose currency is declining. One then converts to a country with higher rates and invests there to earn a yield difference and a potential cap gain on the currency depreciation of the lending country. He has some data showing that recently (last six months?) one could have earned 30%. For this reason and many others he sees the American equity markets as very undesirable. He says that the carry trade today has gotten huge .... and everybody is in the same trade .... hence the comment that the VAR (value at risk) is monstrous. This is what killed rude a year ago. Everybody was long crude and carried out of the dollar. IMO if you don't understand the carry trade, you should get out of the market - I am deadly serious. Makin, John: - gotta be TBTF in order to survive today, - financial (bank) collapses devastate economies, - FED severely incompetent ... was concerned about inflation in fall '08; - China has a wealth storage problem (it is my observation that they are buying beaucoup oil) - why is he so bearish if the markets are showing green shoots ... financial markets respond to stimulus quickly (that doesn't mean that every other market does eg labor) ... year over year comparisons are trivial ... cash for clunkers and a bunch of other noise obscures the real situation; - on reform .. there is no reason to expect any reform from Congress ... "it is ignorant" ... the whole mess was caused by Congress stimulating housing with easy credit - and now they are back doing exactly the same thing.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next