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Pastimes : Where the GIT's are going

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To: SmoothSail who wrote (185441)	10/27/2009 9:11:37 PM
From: Neeka	Read Replies (4) of 225578

This is very scary. We are heading up to the cabin Thursday morning to batten down the hatches and remove valuables. This poses huge danger for flooding in Western Washington. Remnants of Tropical Storm Neki. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Western Washington 181 FXUS66 KSEW 272328 CCA AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 430 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2009 ...CORRECTED HYDROLOGY SECTION .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM RONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WINDY AND QUITE WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...A 500 MB RIDGE ALONG 140W AND TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS MOVES TOWARD WESTERN WASHINGTON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END AND THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE. EXPECT ONLY PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS STILL RATHER STIRRED UP. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AMSU IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES EXTENDING FROM THE REMAINS OF NEKI ALONG 160W ENE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE AT 140W. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG JET WITH 300 MB WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 150-165 KT JUST N OF 50 DEGREES LATITUDE WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA FORCES COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND CONFLUENT STREAMS MERGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL PLUME EASTWARD INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS SOLUTIONS GIVE AN AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...FREEZING LEVELS RISING OVER 10000 FT...AND THE 10 DEC C ISOTHERM WELL INTO THE CLOUD LAYER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. THE 12Z MM5 SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE WET OVER THE N CASCADES WITH 5-8 INCHES MIDDAY THU THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN SEE 3-5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. RAIN SHADOWED LOCATIONS IN THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AS A STRONG MESO LOW FORMS NE OF THE OLYMPICS. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WED EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THU INTO FRI. ALBRECHT .LONG TERM...AFTER ANOTHER WET SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS DECREASES RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY TIME. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE LONG RANGE...SO A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT. .HYDROLOGY...EXPECT RIVERS TO RECEDE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO LATER THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW OF HIGH PW AIR INTO THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS 18Z THU THROUGH 12Z FRI AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-8 INCHES OVER THE N CASCADES. FREEZING LEVELS RISE TO OVER 10000 FT THU THRU FRI...AND THE 10 DEC C ISOTHERM WELL INTO THE CLOUD LAYER MEANS EFFICIENT SMALL-DROP RAINFALL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL PLUME BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON BEGINNING LATE THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ALL INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST RAINFALL AND RIVER FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEK. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT CERTAIN...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON IS A POSSIBILITY. ALBRECHT && .AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AROUND 140W. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY IN LOWEST LAYERS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BROKEN APART WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THIS EVENING. SKIES HIT OR MISS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN BATCHES OF SC LOCATED DOWNWIND OF STRAIT OF GEORGIA WITH LOW LEVEL CAA PICKING UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN NW FLOW. SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 030 SHOULD STICK AROUND TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH INTERIOR WESTERN WA. TERMINALS THAT DO NOT SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. KSEA...WINDS HAVE TURNED LIGHT NORTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE SOUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WANING OVERNIGHT. BEST BET FOR WINDS IS THAT THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DAMICO && .MARINE...NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TODAY WITH FINAL MARINE WIND HAZARDS ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. EVEN AS WINDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN TODAY...COMBINED SEAS ARE RUNNING 11 TO 13 FEET SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PRODUCING LIGHT GRADIENTS AND WIND. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A SUB 980 MB SURFACE LOW SLAMS INTO B.C. JUST NORTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL ENSUE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE PUSH LATE THURSDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE PUGET SOUND AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS SHOW UP OVER COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING IN THE 06-12Z WINDOW ON THURSDAY. DAMICO && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...FLOOD WATCH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE FOR WINDS AND SEAS. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS. .GALE WATCH ALL WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML. atmos.washington.edu

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