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Pastimes : Where the GIT's are going

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To: Ken Adams who wrote (185452)	10/28/2009 12:28:01 PM
From: Neeka	Read Replies (2) of 225578

Rush just said Denver is expecting up to 18" today and tomorrow. I guess our little storm from over the last few days is already there. The forecast for around here has (whew) changed dramatically. It sounds like we dodged another bullet. Stay warm Ken! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Western Washington 211 FXUS66 KSEW 281035 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 330 AM PDT WED OCT 28 2009 .SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM...GFS AND EURO HAVE NOW ALL BACKED OFF ON OUR NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. AS A RESULT HAD TO ADJUST POPS AND QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE. WHILE HEAVIER PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO CAUSE CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN WA AS WE WILL WANT TO SEE THE NEW 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR CONSISTENCY. DESPITE THIS SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN WE SHOULD STILL SEE A LITTLE RAIN HERE TONIGHT AND THU AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES/PASSES THROUGH. WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW AT 30KT WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH UP TO ONE INCH PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR THU NIGHT...HAS BEEN DELAYED NEARLY 24 HR AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PAC NW. THIS LEAVES THE HEAVIEST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN B.C. WITH WESTERN WA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL PROGS NOW SHOW THE FRONT SHIFTING SE AND INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...WITH MAYBE ONLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE MUCH CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUN MORNING BUT WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL STILL SEE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SNOHOMISH/KING CO. 33 .LONG TERM...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST EXTEND INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL. WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A WET PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOW MUCH DRIER WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE. THE JET STREAM WAS AIMED RIGHT AT WA BUT HAS NOW SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...BUT WILL HOLD POPS DOWN TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. THE RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW IN THE FAR EXTENDED AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. IF THIS PANS OUT WILL NEED TO DECREASE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL. 33 .HYDROLOGY...BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE FLOODING CONCERN HAS DECREASED ACROSS WESTERN WA AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS WE WILL WANT TO SEE THE NEW 12Z RUN FOR CONSISTENCY. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WERE SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THU/THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES...BUT THE NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THIS SYSTEM STALLS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WILL STILL SEE RAIN SPREAD INLAND ON THU AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...UP TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING HEAVIER TOTALS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL ONLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH PERHAPS ONLY MINOR RISES ON THE RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. NO FLOOD CONCERN ON THE GREEN RIVER. 33 atmos.washington.edu

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