Novell is Dead. Apple is Dead. Long Live Microsoft! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell is Dead. Apple is Dead. Long Live Microsoft!

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To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (161)	9/6/1996 8:10:00 AM
From: Shibumi	of 238

Salah: I respectfully disagree with your summation: > The only true indication of how well one product is doing relative > to another is total sales, period. Many software companies in their sales compensation schemes heavily weight toward new account sales (in fact, many give no revenue recognition whatsoever for upgrades). Likewise, executive management at many software companies feel that looking at total sales is very misleading unless they can break this down into new sales versus upgrade sales. I actually have first-hand knowledge of this regarding at least 4 major software companies (revenues over $400 million). You say that the ratio of upgrades to new sales is greater for NetWare than for NT. Do you have any numbers on this? I ask because even this isn't clear to me -- I've read that Novell is having great problems getting people to move to version 4.x and I've read no such statements about people moving from 3.5 to 3.5.1. While I'm sure that the absolute number of NetWare customers upgrading is greater, I'd love for you to educate me on this ratio. The bottom line that I'm trying to understand is new account, or even new project (although that's certainly nebulous) penetration by Novell. I do agree, however, that total sales is a very important number. In total sales, what is the total revenue for NetWare in 1995 and what will it be in 1996 (best projections)? For NT, I believe it was (without going back to notes) $1 billion in its last fiscal year and is projected (by Microsoft, with analyst backing) to be $2 billion in its next fiscal year. I'm sure NetWare is ahead of that -- but I truly don't know by how much or what the growth rate between 1995-1996 is. Mark

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