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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (35857)	11/6/2009 10:28:17 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 78764

Most companies have third party evaluations of the NPV (based on year end status and prices) once a year only when they file their 10k. Larger companies don't state the NPV at all, they just publish the reserve numbers. The NPV during the years tend to vary widely (even the third party validated number vary widely - ATPG went from 2.6B$ NPV(2007 10k) to 1B$ NPV (2008 10k) probably due to crude prices) and they are based on management estimates and not numbers from a 3rd party audit firm. That is why I am skeptical of the numbers that ATPG is posting because it differs tremendously from the 12/31/08 number in the 10k ( there are valid reasons for this but still it's a factor 5x higher) and because ATPG has a track record of overpromising. As I see ATPG's dire situation a few month ago and the prospect of running out of cash, i can't blame them on promoting their prospects but given the circumstances, i think chances are pretty high that they are overpromising. I only vaguely remember the story around the promising North Sea assets, but I sure would study what happened in 2006 or so, if I had a substantial investment in this stock.

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