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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (45825)	11/10/2009 3:58:10 PM
From: The Ox	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 95572

I just don't see us seeing the kind of stock appreciation that led to the SOX reaching 1362 in early 2000. I agree but wouldn't rule out the possibility that the SOX gets at least half way there, iow, 6 or 7 hundred (or a double from here). The moves off the lows tend to be about 16 to 18 months in duration (96-97, 98-00, 02-03). With this in mind, we are 12 months into the move and may have at least another 4 to 6 months at a minimum. Considering the washout nature of last year's lows, I would consider the possibility that we could have an extended period of rebound ahead of us. The SOX has doubled off the low and I think there is a chance for another double to be had (or 4x off the Nov 08 low). With relatively low inventories in the system combined with the reluctant spending thus far in the SCE sector, we may be seeding the 'green shoot' setup for a longer term fundamental improvement/expansion. The slope of the gain may be more muted but the improvement in company bottom lines may extend for a longer period of time then we've seen in past rebounds. jmo TO

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