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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 63.99+4.7%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST
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To: Biomaven who wrote (32861)11/11/2009 8:14:19 AM
From: kenhott1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Not OT- ARIA. I will add that this is a targeted therapy in a well described disease, CML. There could be a real clinical difference in performance between a targeted therapy and a broad therapy like (for instance) chemo in CML. A chemo approach is like a shotgun approach. We are shooting in the general direction of the beasts and hope that we can kill them or maim them, most or all. It is a hit or graze or miss situation. And the ones missed or grazed will carry the disease forward. With this approach, you can get no response (mostly miss), durable response (kill/maim) and non-durable response (mostly not kill/maim).

A targeted therapy in something like CML is different. We think we know the anatomy of the beast and the targeted drug is an attempt at a head shot. If we agree that we know CML, then the issue becomes how good is the head shot and can we kill them fast enough. We are seeing data that shows good early effect. With a real targeted approach, it is much more likely that the responses will be "durable" because the target is the "head". I am not saying cure because cancer is a difficult beast to slay but at this point with the data that ARIA has, I would not expect the effectiveness to drop off the side of the building. Safety is still a real issue as ARIA goes to higher doses and more patients. Off target is always a problem in drug development. The "good" news is that this is a cancer drug so the safety profile need not be as clean as like a HCV drug (Another targeted approach), for instance.
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