Good point. Yes, indeed. There are many possibilities. For example, the USD may never actually "crash" against other fiat. Also, I could envision the JPY, USD, and the Yuan going down against all other fiat and gold until the Yuan finds the limit, and then the Yuan-USD link busts and the Yuan goes supernova high.
Probably at this point right now in late 2009 after a year of trauma, small country currency meltdowns mean little. This is why our current juncture is intriguing. Small financial accidents that would have triggered dominoes 18 months ago will be brushed off better.
Gold is the new vigilante though. Which is really good and I would hope that those who never gave two thoughts to gold would at least see the value now of having a substance that is counterweight to the failed, post-war economy experts.
I was reading Martin Armstrong's new gold missive last night. His discussion of the US's brief war on gold in 1869 was very cool reading. I would guess there'll be a few battles like this on the way to gold 2500 or 5K or whatever.
martinarmstrong.org
For me, the most important concept I've found useful is to totally reject the binary inflation-deflation false dilemma, and simply go with a Pricing Chaos framework, which teeters and oscillates.
Finally, I favor the idea that all extreme outcomes are terrible for the USD and USTreasuries. Living on root vegetables from the backyard garden as a new class of suitcase traders flows by on the street outside will be a very unhappy time for everyone and the inability to afford stuff will be called all different names, but the names won't matter much if it gets to that.
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