Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (104355)	11/16/2009 5:12:17 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	5 Recommendations Read Replies (5) of 116555

Mish, the recovery is going to be a lot stronger than people think and Urban "gateway" (NY, SF, Boston, Seattle, LA proper, etc.) housing is going to have a V shaped recovery. Your blog will get more visits if you begin to talk about the Fed's exit strategy and rate hikes in 2010. Though we may be in a secular deflation, the current shape of the yield curve is highly INFLATIONARY and is UNSUSTAINABLE. Whether that inflation comes from inside the US or outside, is irrelevant. It's coming because of the number of countries which outsource their monetary policy to the Fed via their currency pegs. The Fed's policy may be appropriate for the US, but it's not appropriate for Asia or the Middle East. The more the bears thrash around, the more the bulls are stomping over them. The sentiment is still terrible. Never in my career would I have thought that a 60% rally in the equity markets would still be met with historically high implied volatilties or equity mutual fund outflows for that matter!!! Judging by the amount of absurd responses I will get to this post, it will further prove the point I've been attempting to make since April. Since when did John Q. Public ever get it right - why would it be this time? When the amateurs go all in and "can't take it anymore", then I'll sell to them. Until then, you're pissing into the wind right now.

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