I RAN SOME NUMBERS...
CYMER did $145 Million in Total Revenue for the Last 3Q's.
Throw in another $62 million for 4Q (safe) and we get $207 million for Fiscal 1997.
CYMER stated recently they expect 40% revenue growth for 1998 ($207 x 140% = $289 million for Fiscal 1998)
Based on the last Q of $57,468,000 in Revenue and 126 lasers we get approx. $450,000 per laser.
Based on $.23 per share(30.5 million) we get approx. $2.5 million in Revenue per $.01 earnings. ($57.5 / 23)
Based on CYMERS projected growth rate (Revenue of $289 Million 1998) divided by $450,000 per laser = 642 lasers. $289M / $2.5M ($.01 per share / revenue ratio) = $1.15 per share.
Morgan says approx. 475 lasers x $450,000 per = $213,750,000 / $2.5 million = $.85 per share.
700 lasers x $450,000 = $315,000,000 / $2.5 million = $1.26 per share.
The Gross margin is expected to increase from 38% to 45% by the end of 1998. The tax rate is expected to increase from 25% to 37% in 1998.
No additional revenue has been included (service, parts, etc..).
The P/E ratio should be around 30-40.
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