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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (38718)11/17/2009 8:14:15 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 71588
 
but then they were only officially projecting out some ten years.

and only 10 years from now, not 10 years from when the expenses for the program really start. That's a little trick from congress, who knows the CBO can only project out 10 years, so they start "revenue enhancement" right away and wait a few years to add the costs in, making it look much better over the narrow window which the CBO looks at.

Long term would probably be several decades. Really the program could impact for longer than that, but past several decades so many things change that its not really possible to project well. You could try to estimate the cost for the US for a centuries and then there might not even be a US in a few centuries.

Since the bill was carefully constructed to reduce the CBO cost numbers, but not carefully constructed to reduce the actual cost, if your going to use the CBO cost estimates a lot of adjustment is needed to strip out these false optimizations.

Even the several decades is really difficult, but if you like the CBO's data, you could take the last years cost (perhaps increased by a margin to account for the typical cost overruns), and then multiply it by 10 to call it the cost for 10 years of the program is at or near full swing. Also you should probably subtract out things like the "doc fix" that are unlikely to be sustained, but which the CBO's rules combined with the wording of the bill require the CBO to include in their analysis.
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