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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch

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From: Rarebird11/19/2009 9:40:57 AM
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Transcendental Market Fragments:

S&P 500:

Although the SPX has been able to bounce back from dips and make higher highs in price, this has occurred on lower highs on the oscillator, resulting in a case of bearish divergence. And, there has been lower price highs in the broad market, which also constitutes a case of bearish divergence. There is no question that the market is forming some kind of top. But, of course, it's taking its sweet time to finish it - that's no doubt due to the Dollar Carry Trade. Only a real rally in the dollar is likely to catalyze a real decline in stock prices.

Dollar Index:

Some of my friends are saying the pattern in the Dollar Index to the downside is complete - and it may very well be - but the Euro will need to confirm it has topped to put a lot of faith in the dollar rallying here. Certainly, the Canadian Dollar definitely appears to have topped versus the dollar. The British Pound and Japanese Yen probably have also topped despite showing some recent days strength. The Swiss Franc still hasn't confirmed a top, though.

Dow Industrials:

Money Flow remains bullish.

Advance-Decline Line:

The NYSE Common Stock Advance-Decline Line still is showing no signs of confirming a new uptrend here. If the A-D Line were able to move above its recent high, I would be forced to admit that a new uptrend had started. If such an uptrend has started, it could carry the market higher into May.
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