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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (38840)11/20/2009 10:06:31 PM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (2) of 71588
 
So I ran some numbers. I had to guess quite a bit. I used an inflation factor of 5% for every category. I backed into the numbers from the gross ten year costs reported in the articles I cite.

Each of the costs matches the reported costs fairly closely. Here is the actual cost according to my guestimate:

       Cost Doc Fix  House Fix  Increase util
2009             17        18       37
2010             18        19       39
2011             19        20       41
2012             20        21       43
2013             21        22       45
2014    143      22        23       47
2015    150      23        24       49
2016    158      24        25       51
2017    166      25        26       54
2018    174      26        27       57
2019    183      27        28       60
2020    192      28        29       63
2021    202      29        30       66
2022    212      30        32       69
2023    223      32        34       72
       ----    ----      ----     ----    Gross
       1803     361       378      793     3335


$250B doctor fix
Message 26036375

$228 House fix that will never happen:
Also Increased Utilization:
Message 26103644

$2.4B - $2.6B
Message 26093951

The one number that you might argue with would be the increased utilization number the report cited in the article had three numbers, I used the middle one.

Are you happy now? The actual additional costs of doing the takeover would be $3.4 Trillion through 2023. That is a wee bit more than what Reid and the Obama Pelosi Administration are advertising.

.............................................
More like it would generate a river of red ink for well over 20 years. The way they got it to run so cheap was by not implementing it for 5 years.

In order to fit it in under $1Trillion they had to back load benefits. They don't start till 2014. They also had to jettison the annual medicare doctor adjustment which was $210 - $250B over ten years.

Over a 10 year budget window starting when the program is slated to start it would be roughly $1.8T plus the annual one time doctor adjustments.
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