Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (91498)	11/20/2009 11:00:29 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) of 94695

Terry, i think folks aren't viewing gold so much as an investment, but as collapse insurance. the guy who pays $1150 for gold and stores it is a genius when the banks close and the credit cards are frozen. no, you can't eat it - you need food first. you can't shoot it, you need protection, too. but once you have that, holding dollars is extremely risky with $1.25 million in obligations per american household. i think gold will get hit when the carry trade unwinds. i think it goes down less than the overall markets, though. i also find the stock market much more over valued than gold. gold is still <50% previous highs during a time of turmoil that is a small fraction compared to what we face now. the markets are 2x the PE of their previous bubble high in 2000. that's a 4x disparity when comparing current values to previous peaks. also, the gold stocks aren't trading very well at all - many well below last year's high even though gold is pushing ever higher. that's not indicative of a bubble top. i'm looking into a sizeable bullion purchase right now (collapse insurance) coupled with an IYR and/or RWM short position as a hedge.

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