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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (9720)	11/24/2009 12:01:16 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (3) of 24213

World Oil Production Forecast - Update November 2009 Posted by ace on November 23, 2009 - 9:45am World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.74 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 72 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline at about 2.2 mbd per year as shown below in the chart. The forecasts from the IEA WEO 2008 and 2009 are shown for comparison. The IEA 2009 forecast has dropped significantly lower than the 2008 forecast. The IEA 2009 forecast also shows a slight decline from 2009 to 2012 implying that the IEA possibly agrees that world oil peaked in July 2008. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production now to urgently increase the focus on oil conservation and alternative renewable energy sources. Fig 1 - World Oil Production to 2012 - click to enlarge (oil includes crude oil, lease condensate and oil sands) World Oil Production World crude oil, condensate and oil sands production peaked in 2005 at an annual average of 73.72 million barrels per day (mbd) according to recent EIA production data. 2008 production was slightly less than 2005 creating a peak plateau from 2005 to 2008 as shown in the chart below. Production is expected to decline further as non OPEC annual oil production peaked in 2004 and is forecast to decline at a faster rate in 2010 and beyond due mainly to big declines from Russia, Norway, the UK and Mexico. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production peaked in 2005. By 2011, OPEC will not have the ability to offset cumulative non OPEC declines and world oil production is forecast to stay below its 2005 peak. My forecast to 2012 is based on an aggregation of individual forecasts from over 80 countries including over 300 major oil projects. My estimate of 1.95 trillion barrels (TB) of total Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR) of oil is used to generate the forecast beyond 2012 as shown by the red line below. If Colin Campbell's estimate of 2.20 TB is used, which is 250 billion barrels (Gb) greater than my estimate due mainly to more optimistic assumptions about OPEC reserves, the peak production date remains at 2005. This shows that an additional 250 Gb of recoverable oil reserves does not change the peak oil date and instead increased production rates occur later as indicated by the green line below. Additional reserves and the related production from prospective areas such as the arctic, Iraq, and Brazil's Santos basin are highly unlikely to produce another peak but should decrease the production decline rate after 2012... theoildrum.com

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