UBS Lifts PC Forecasts For 2009, 2010
By Eric Savitz
UBS analyst Maynard Um this morning lifted his 2009 PC unit forecast to positive 0.4%, from -2.1%, reflecting an expected 10% year-over-year growth rate in the fourth quarter. “Demand has proven more resilient than expected driven by aggressive consumer pricing and fiscal stimulus,” he writes in a research note. “We expect consumer demand in Q4 to continue to be driven by promotional activity, but believe unit growth is likely to see lower-than-normal seasonality due to component tightness.” (Offsetting that, he thinks Q1 should be better than seasonal.)
For 2010, he now sees 12.6% unit growth, up from 8.8% previously. He says growth should be driven by a better economy and “design-focused consumer PCs,” as well as enterprise PC refresh - although he does not expect a meaningful uptick in enterprise until mid-2010.
Um says is favorite picks in the PC sector are Apple (AAPL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Seagate (STX). Among Asian plays, he favors Hon Hai, Acer and Asustek. His least favorite stock: Dell (DELL), given “near-term challenges as it transitions its model.”:
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