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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
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To: yoremopnhoj who wrote (24892)11/26/2009 1:16:16 AM
From: Skeeter Bug4 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 71456
 
yore,

keep this scenario in mind - it probably won't play out, but it is my current view (long term gold is a big winner in this scenario).

1. markets are about flat or up by the end of the year - gold probably up more.
2. in Q1, the PPT pulls support for the market and it crashes and the dollar strengthens. i think gold sells off, but not near as much as the market.

why up through EOY?

1. the government wants people happy at xmas.
2. goldman sachs wants the ink to dry on their billions in bonuses before the markets collapse.

why down in Q1?

1. the banksters need 2010 bailout bonus money and funds to keep their zombies walking and a financial crisis will grease the public to for bailout part deux.
2. the government needs an excuse to keep printing.
3. the ~140 PE is difficult to support in the context of a lousy xmas shopping season.
4. it is easy to manipulate the market down and back up compared to continue trying to expand the ~140 PE. goldman sachs can make money down as well as up.

the bull is showing weakness. the dollar dropped 1.18% against the euro and the markets rose 1/3% to 1/2%.

in short, if another crisis hits and gold shows weakness, be sure to jump in with hedges.

i think there is a reasonable chance the markets collapse and gold goes up.

in any case, this next collapse will be the beginning of the true end - the money printing will not only not stop, it will escalate from current levels.

ps - if the chinese don't start screaming bloody murder, i'm of a mind that obama told them that the US would take the dollar down through the end of the year and then strengthen it in Q1. without a promise to strength the dollar in Q1, the chinese should be *livid* right now.
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