GDXJ - Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : GDXJ - Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index

GDXJ 93.63

-1.4%

4:00 PM EDT

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From: gregor_us	11/26/2009 3:54:56 PM
	1 Recommendation of 196

A lesson from the bull market years in oil and oil equities may offer some insight as to how gold mining equities may trade, from here on in. And that's this. The big money gets very nervous about the equities when the commodity is running. They know all sorts of capital is going to flee the equities any time the commodity corrects. So, the biggest most ferocious moves in the energy equities generally unfolded after oil pulled back some for a bit, and then started up again. There is always room for a capitulatory move (higher) however in the gold stocks, as long as they spend enough time lagging the POG. We may see that soon. Like a few others on SI, am particularly keen to see when--if--the South Africans explode higher. I'm not sure this "has" to happen but eventually I think it will happen. I would not be surprised to see some of those go up 500% in 6 months. And the longer they do nothing in the face of gold going higher, the better because it gets more perverse by the day. Granted, the South Africans are suffering from Peak Gold--at least peak gold in SA. But there's an inflection point on resource scarcity. It's very negative for the companies up unto a certain point. And then it flips, and becomes a very powerful positive. I'll wager that if a person has experience trading the junior oil sands stocks, for example (and also some of the seniors) they'll do very well with the gold stocks. G

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