SA 4th in world gold reserve ranking
SA's gold reserves at 2 948 tons are less than half of the current US Geological Survey estimate of 6 000 tons.
South Africa's gold reserves at 2 948 tons are less than half of the current United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimate of 6 000 tons, Umvoto Africa research and technical director Chris Hartnady said on Monday.
This means the country is not first, but fourth in world rankings, after Australia (5 000 tons), Peru (3 500 tons) and Russia (3 000 tons).
Hartnady said the USGS currently cites South Africa's gold reserves at around 6 000 tons, while official SA figures claim a 36 000 tons reserve base figure, or about 40% of the global total,
Releasing a paper published in the South African Journal of Science in September/October, Hartnady said this 36 000 tons reserve figure has been unchanged since 2001.
But Hartnady, questioning the credibility of this figure, provides a fresh perspective.
Using figures supplied by the Chamber of Mines and mathematical modelling pioneered by American geologist Marion King Hubbert, Hartnady said the South African residual gold reserve after production through 2007 is only 2 948 tons.
This is a little less than three times the 1970 production figure, and much less than 10% of the officially cited reserve.
The Witwatersrand goldfields are around 95% exhausted and production rates should fall permanently below 100 tonnes/year within the coming decade, said Hartnady.
Hartnady's research shows that after the first (1880s-1910) and second stages (1911-1951) in the history of South African gold mining, there was a remarkable growth phase from an annual production rate of less than 400 tons in 1952 to over 950 tons in 1965.
This period is associated with bringing new mines into production around the new goldfields of Carletonville, Klerksdorp, the Free State and Evander areas, and the introduction of innovative technologies for mining at ever-deeper levels.
Gold production peaked at around 1 000 tons in 1970 and has declined ever since.
Initially (1970-1975) the decline was "quite precipitous" and has been interrupted by only short periods of slight trend reversal (1982-1984 and 1992-1993), said Hartnady.
"Given the energy and environmental problems associated with ongoing groundwater control, water-resource contamination by acid mine drainage and the possibility of widespread mercury and other factors of pollution caused by illicit underground ore-processing by the zama-zamas (illegal miners), the glory days of South African gold mining appear to have arrived finally at an ignominious end," said Hartnady.
"There can be no further illusions, maintained by unrealistic expectation of a future fortune, about the seriousness of the present situation.
In their various possible forms, the slow-onset disasters of environmental degradation associated with the death-throes of a formerly illustrious industry now pose a serious threat, and may ultimately cost far more than the net present value of some 3 000 tons of gold," he warned.
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