s&p500 in usd
s&p500 in aud
s&p500 in chf
just in in-tray, from ex-believer
THE LOST DECADE OF THE US
If you were an overseas investor in US mkts, say coming from the Eurozone, Australia, etc, then you have not made much money in absolute terms since 1995-96, if you held equal weight invests in a basket of US stocks as represented by the S&P500, likely the broadest measure. It was really only up to early '90s that you got a bang for your buck.
But in terms of fees, this same investor has paid out 1% or 1+xx% per year based on the S&P US dollar performance.
We are talking about 1.5 decades here. So when we are told that gold does not earn anything this still looks like a case of the pot calling the kettle black.
I am not taking sides. I am not a gold bug. But I believe gold and non-dollars have a place in portfolios, and as the case may be the dollar may again have a better place in a portfolio as well. The added advantage of gold at the moment, is that there are investor classes still re-discovering that gold can be money and not just jewelry or a commodity -- which is providing a re-rating function as well. But we don't need to pay Paulson fees for this....
Eventually, IF we can get over the Obama effect (a double whammy on Capitalism after the first whack by large money center banks) and the US can re-invent itself again then maybe we will have a better opportunity again to invest in America.
At the moment consensus to stay away appears to be more right than wrong.
We could also trade sideways in many US linked markets, rather than up or down, which would make a better case for looking for good yield. At the end of the day, barring the panic of end-08 and early-09 the S&P500 in CHF terms has gone nowhere. So 4% on baby products and soups and 8-10% in oil trusts does not look so bad.
We need to find the right cash flow...and we need to think who we are paying fees to.
As another wake-up call, also enclosed is the S&P500 seen in Aussie dollars -- In Aussie dollars the Internet Bubble peak of the US has not come close to being retested...
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