China will have to do "Japan" at some point, but I don't think
we are there yet. Perhaps, it's GDP will have exceed that of US
and Europe first. At this rate BRIC GDP will exceed the GDP
of US or Europe within a few years, and Chinese GDP will exceed
US GDP some time early next decade. That said, everyone knows
you can't continue parabolic charts to infinity -g- Currently
Chinese nominal GDP (in USD) is growing 28% annually, so,
US and Europe have about 6-8 years until China becomes the
King of the globe. Note that their share will jump instantly
if they allow Yuan to appreciate. It's interesting how
the currency dynamics played a major role here - even as
Japan's bubble burst in 1990, the nominal USD GDP continued
to soar with the Yen (Yen peaked in the mid-90-s).
So, from the point of view of USA,
it's not USA that had a lost decade, it was a decade of
a major global boom during which US saw a major erosion of
it's share of the global pie. -g-
google.com
Now, a really depressing chart - Zimbabwian USD gdp is now
lower than in 1975. This chart shows the long term effect
of hyperinflation on real GDP. It's even more depressing if
you remember how much purchasing power USD lost since 1975,
perhaps, 95-97% of it.
google.com |
