I've thought about that one some and on virtually all you've said I agree...except for the outcome, at least as I envision it.
I don't think Floyd will be able to stop Manny, but I also don't think that - other than by sheer randomness - Manny is going to be able to land on Floyd as flushly, as solidly, as he caught Hatton, Cotto, Delahoya, etc. I see Manny's best chance in Floyd busting one (or both) hands early OR in a random shot that ends the evening.
Overall, what I envision is Manny chasing a backpedaling, counterpunching Floyd for 12 rounds, with a few end-of-round flurries and exchanges; Manny is never seriously hurt, Floyd is perhaps caught once or twice glancingly, and Floyd ekes out an 8-4, 7-5, 9-3 win. Something like that. Not the way I'd like to see the fight go, but, that's what I suspect.
:-)
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