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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch
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From: Rarebird11/30/2009 9:08:17 AM
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Transcendental Market Fragments:

Gold:

Gold is forming an Eighties-style top as the public pours in to buy while the pros sell to them.

Miners:

Mining insiders aren't looking a gift horse in the mouth - they're selling everything in this bubble. This may be the most glaring bearish divergence in market history.

Nasdaq-100:

There has not been a substantial amount of selling in NDX and the pattern appears to be turning more bullish as the Accumulation-Distribution Line failed to confirm the new low in price last week.

S&P 500:

Bullish money flow divergence warns the bears not to overstay the party here. Seasonal factors appear to be overriding fundamentals as the market may be gearing up for a January Effect Rally into 2010.

PHLX/KBW Bank Sector:

The Bank Sector Index though, isn't showing anything nearly so bullish. The banks are still in critical condition despite massive infusion of taxpayer money. Insiders are taking out as much as they can in bonuses before the final ax falls in this depression. With their only big loans being made to the government and real estate prices upon which virtually all collateral is based still falling, the future does not look bright for the bank sector. Another big leg down in real estate would no doubt find the government paralyzed with indecision as to whether the public would sit still for another big bailout, with the consequence that the dominoes would start falling again with no one willing to stop the decline.

Dow Industrials:

There's no sign of money flow turning down and the eleven stocks in the Dow leading the market higher continue strong.

S&P Midcap 400:

Last week, I saw a turn up in money flow into this, the strongest sector of the market. This suggests that tax-loss selling may be ending and this leading index could be soon to rally into the new year.

Bottom Line:

I'm looking for a possible seasonal low on Wednesday, December 2.
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