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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (106463)11/30/2009 11:13:59 PM
From: Gib Bogle1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
"I posted this to Gib. He knows it's true."

Please don't talk crap with my name attached. I have no idea why you posted this to me. I have no idea how much significance should be given to this evidence of dishonesty. I am not a climate scientist. I am not competent to make an informed assessment of the predictions that are being published. My general attitude can be summed up in two statements:

(1) When an overwhelming majority of scientists in a particular field all accept some hypothesis as valid, it probably is - although of course this is not always the case.

(2) As a long-time developer of numerical models (with no connection to climate models) I tend to be skeptical about predictions coming out of complex models, and climate is exceedingly complex.

In a nutshell, I don't have a dog in this fight. I'm leaning in the direction of the scientific consensus, but I am not convinced. Perhaps if I had more knowledge of the facts I would be.

Scientists are human (well, on the whole), and subject to the usual human failings. There undoubtedly are incentives for scientists looking for funding to hype the importance of their research - these incentives exist in all fields - and fraud does occur. But the scientific process for separating the wheat from the chaff (e.g. the peer review process) normally works pretty well, and I have to say that in my personal experience most scientists strike me as pretty honest.
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