If you are going to the bunker for SHTF, then gold, guns, and
land is the basics. Some store canned food. Otherwise, if
things don't really get that bad, just go with the flow.
Follow the Fed. It is in their power to let deflation take hold,
it is in their power to destroy the dollar instead and
blow asset bubbles. The rest is speculation, and it is not easy,
since there are privileged folks who get the memo from the
Fed first.
Overall, SHTF, a sudden stop like Argentina, or a currency
run, is not likely in the USA, simply because the net
international debt position is not that large compared
to what US owns in the World and what the World owns in
the US. So, a sharp currency move would change the balance
of that equation. The economy will not be good
for quite some time, but a version of stagflation
is more likely, a tradeoff of decreasing real income for
somewhat better unemployment picture than it would be
otherwise. The dollar will drop some more, but not go to zero.
Eventually we'll see a recovery. We are seeing it now, but
I do think the horrible recession of 2008-2009 will take
a W, not V shape, with the second V in 2011. Then we'll have a new
upside cycle in the economy, although it will not be very
strong, IMHO. So, 10-some more years of this crap we are
living through now, with some marginal improvement down
the road, although not immediately. |
