peter--
be glad to share, but i, like everyone else here, am fallible. but, FWIW....
right now i am waiting for the inevitable pop back above 30. at that time i will pick up some more puts. i think we may see low 20's going into february and maybe the teens in march and april. this will be about the bottom. i will start buying long again around 16-17, and at the same time closing out short positions. i think the bottom is going to be around 12-13/share, but i am seldom right about bottoms (50/50 chance it will be either lower or higher. but RARELY is it in the range i pick.). now, as soon as margins turn north, i will start buying a lot. that is the real key, and it normally happens before the glut is actually subsiding and profits return. and i'll dump the shares in the low to mid thirties again.
for now....just short with tight stops. yes, there are some pretty volatile swings in the stock, but more often than not you will make more money this way than staying short. and you sleep better in the process:).
dont put too much into the shorts, but you can into the med term puts (2-3 months out). just remember to TAKE PROFIT. no one every went broke selling for a profit, even if it isnt as much as they could have made. the last time i was long MU, i sold at around 33-34/share. granted, it did go up to 60 eventually, but that would have tied up my money for 9 mos. i'm just not that patient<G>.
anyway, i hope this helps.
good luck to all,
trey |
