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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks

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From: Jack Hartmann	12/3/2009 9:33:49 AM
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Business week called this the decade of hell. It also showed that no one was infallible during the ten years. Everyone missed a rally or got caught up in a downdraft. Goldman Sachs is pointing at 4.5% global recovery for the next two years. I am not so sure. Everyone is cost cutting and profits from companies are from that vs. increased sales in most sectors. I remember my construction friends saying that residential collapse was not so bad because they had a strong commercial backlog. Now the commerial building has grinding to the halt. In Illinois, the largest job is the Conoco Refinery expansion. Then the ARRA stimulus was another billion here. Those are all winding up. Then public jobs are next like the Winnebago County building, Dekalb High School, Chicago Police station and the Tollway expansions. There are only two jobs with tower cranes in Chciago and they will be done this summer. Dekalb has open store fronts that has been vacant for over a year. Unemployment is 11.0% up from 8% a year or so ago. The state is $6.6 Billion in the hole this year. Chicago was $592 Million in the hole. So the public sector is continuing to cut. I am not quite sure how far this spiral will go on. I can make a bull and a bear scenario so I rather be defensive instead of getting caught in another market downdraft. The stimulus was a push this year. I can't see the push reoccuring. Many retirees I know are coming back to work only to find that the employers are picky and reluctant to offer fulltime. A few mentioned that an annuity of 5% was expected on some of their vested savings. Now 1.5% is the best they are getting from the money markets. $500,000 saved at 5% was $25,000 in annual income and 1.5% is $7,500. This is quite a drop coupled with the 2008 market collapse on their stock funds it created a double downdraft to retirement planning. So 2010 will be cautious.

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