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Gold/Mining/Energy : Peak Oil - Not If but When
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From: veritas50112/3/2009 1:11:48 PM
of 129
 
One of the first reactions people have to Peak Oil and the terminal decline of oil production is that society can find some other energy source -- that there is nothing particularly special about oil and there exist adequate substitutes. Unfortunately, these ideas are delusions. Oil really is one of a kind. Its abundance in the past has fooled people into thinking that it really is just a "commodity" when in fact it is anything but.

Take a look at this graph which shows the energy densities of different fuels by volume and weight:

theoildrum.com

As one can see, diesel and gasoline trump other forms of energy. But there are 2 other qualities of oil that have allowed it to drive human development much more so than other forms of energy. First, oil is a liquid at room temperature and so can be easily transported. Second, oil has been easily available in vast quantities. It is easy to see then why oil has been such a powerful fuel -- energy dense, a liquid, and seemingly unlimited amounts.

What about bio-fuels? The problem with fuels derived from agricultural products is one of scale. We're not talking about a few barrels a day here. In order for bio-fuels to be a credible alternative they have to be produced on the same scale of oil production today. That is, they have to be produced at the rate of 85 million barrels a day. This kind of scale for bio-fuels simply isn't possible.

There are difficult issues to deal with. Unfortunately, their difficulty has been compounded by society's ignoring them for too long.
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