The coming US dollar crisis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis

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To: Tommaso who wrote (25156)	12/3/2009 3:08:37 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) of 71475

There is a glut. Natural gas will definitely soar. Consumer prices are currently kept at crude-equivalent levels. Kinda like 2008 for gas in reverse - when retail gas prices soared to $4 to reflect oil at $150, it had an immediate effect on demand and oil finally crashed. The problem is, in UNG (or futures) you pay a very high price for waiting (contango), somewhat less now than before. NG was in supercontango this Summer, which explains such poor performance of UNG relative to natural gas. In other words, it's difficult to take advantage of soaring NG. If you buy UNG, it may pee away all future NG price gain through contango before it actually soars, which is exactly what it did, so far: NG is almost 100% higher than in September, UNG just broke September lows. The cost of a few Rollovers this Summer was something like 30%!

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