re: ["are you adding more UNG as it goes lower ?"]
Hmmm?
UNG has fallen from $63 to now $8.73, an -87% correction.
I caught a little $9-$12 bounce trade earlier, and have been
targeting a re- entry on an expected double bottom re-test
of $8.94, for another $9-12 trading range bounce.
At an 8.73 open today, I'm within 2% of my target.
8.73 - 8.94?
.21 cents?
Would you significantly change your thoughts on MFN, HL,
of AUY if it moved 2%, or .21 cents in either direction?
Ahhh, no.
Commodity stocks and ETFs are volatile. 2% isn't even
a tradeable move.
UNG popped 11% from Tuesday to Friday over Thanksgiving,
moving from $8.88 to $9.83.
Should the shorts have run for the hills and should bulls
have planted a victory flag?
You tell me.
I've mainly sold 2012 puts ($3+ premiums on $10 strike),
and those puts are still money "positive" even with
a small pullback in UNG.
finance.yahoo.com
I had a few shares, moved up stops 1/2 way behind the move
from $8.88 to $9.83 last Friday, but got stopped out of
shares on the pullback this week.
Not looking to add any shares, and not looking to sell
any more puts into year end, unless we'd see a major
discrepancy between price and fundamentals develop.
As I mentioned earlier, UNG is my smallest position and
I'm looking for a bounce trade, and using it as a laggard
commodity hedge along with DBA (larger position), in which
to park cash vs. holding depreciating dollars.
UNG and DBA can also be negative correlated hedges to
gold shares as they tend to not only rise on a weak
dollar, but also on any positive economic news, like
we're seeing today.
Positive economic news if you believe we're creating jobs
that is <vbg>.
We haven't pulled back enough to add to positions, but
for those looking for an initial entry - "SELL LEAP PUTS"
look for 30% premium to strike price ratios.
UNG & Nat Gas have weathered some pretty bad supply news
and endured negative economic fundamentals since the initial
$8.94 UNG bottom in late August. An awful lot of bad news
has been thrown at it, to still be within 2% of that bottom.
Bottoms are formed when negative current fundamentals begin
to be ignored and future positive fundamentals begin to
be anticipated.
So far... I'd say UNG has done a good job ignoring the
bad news. Now, let's see if it can begin to anticipate
some good news, or cold weather, or a weaker dollar,
or higher oil, or an attack on Iran that spikes oil,
or an economic recovery, or another leg down in the
dollar, or it getting snapped up as a laggard commodity...
Hope that helps,
SOTB |
