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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (126332)12/4/2009 2:02:08 PM
From: cosmicforce  Read Replies (1) of 543604
 
I get tired of being the 5% who never gets any pleasure in say "I told you so..." but rather feels like Cassandra, doomed to making true predictions that people will never believe, watching in horror as predictions come true and the people warned are as subject to the horrors as if no warning was given at all.

Back in 2001/2002 here on SI I'd said to the effect "if we aren't flying regular flights out of Baghdad 30 days after we take it, we'll be there for a decade because we will obviously have miss assessed it so badly." As it turns out, thirty days after the fall planes were still dropping flares behind them as they took off.

It was a very simple metric.

This prediction was prior to "Shock and awe" and I asked the PfP people who were backing some sort of attack "What does a win in Iraq look like?" Everyone answered about how bad Saddam were, the WMDs, and what a threat Iraq was but, not on point to the issue of "What is a win?". Some said, like Bush, that it would end in democracy. Democracy in Iraq doesn't necessarily make a win for the US, IMO.

Obviously I'm not the only person who felt this way, even within the ranks of military planners. Somehow, the lunatics and warmongers get the say and the sheeple follow their lead.
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