Hi Phillip
so how did the visit go?
you said:
"Finallly, study APCC's growth rate overseas and listen
to the news about all of the turmoil in Southeast Asia
and what this is going to do to demand over there, and
one might want to ratchet down growth rates for APCC in
1998, I don't believe that this has been factored in yet
as well as many other companies with exposure over seas."
Well, analysis of the numbers may be useful before
"racheting" down the growth rates estimates.
In fiscal 1996, APCC had sales of 706 millions, 294 millions
to foreign markets. Of these, only 52 million were to
the Asia Pacific, with most of these to Japan. Only
10% of the company's FOREIGN operating profits were
from Asia Pacific. Based on these numbers, it is quite
clear that even if growth were to flatten out for a
few quarters in this part of the world, this would really
only represent a drop in APCC's bucket.
I think it is much more important to guestimate the
impact symmetra will have in profit margins and growth
on APCC than to focus on the (now too fashionable)
problems in Hong Kong. After all, Japan's market has been
crumbling for the last 5 years or so and that hasn't slowed
APCC's growth.
Finally, I think this story is relevant to our situation:
exchange2000.com
Long APCC, expecting a ride to mid 30's in 98. You won't find
many high tech companies which such a near monopoly on their
business trading at a trailing p.e. of 20-23! Or is this a
battery company?
Trilobyte |
