The simple truth - this market is not easy,
So true. If it were easy, and if we had the discipline to put into practice what we know, we'd all be jillionaires. Knowing is the easy part. Disciplined action is by definition not easy.
I'll tell you what I really think: The US economy will flounder with low growth and high unemployment for a very long time, at least a half decade. As a result, the Fed will be unable to withdraw liquidity, and interest rates will probably remain low.
Housing will take a very long time to recover. Stimulus will be necessary. Inflation is unlikely to be a threat because velocity will probably remain low. The cost of the wars and the insane defense budget will keep deficits high. Because it will be difficult for growth to get going in a non-stimulated way, taxes cannot be increased in any substantive manner, except, of course, on estates, which will be taxed to a fare-thee-well as the Boomers' parents die off and the biggest generational transfer of wealth in history takes place.
J6P and a lot of the previously gentrified will find themselves behind the eight ball, particularly as health care keeps up eating up national wealth.
Social tensions and petty and not so petty crime will increase. The infrastructure will deteriorate. The squid banks will increase their influence, working the system to their benefit.
Stock markets will be range bound. A stock picker's dream, but anyone who thinks that the ever-rising trend will lift him is smoking rope.
It is all very grim. Kinda like the last year, except to the nth. And that is why I like gold. |
