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Politics : Politics of Energy
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (14691)12/6/2009 10:15:16 AM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (2) of 86356
 
yes, agreed, there must be something that is more powerful than CO2 AT THIS POINT IN TIME. The real question is whether that external event that is impacting the trend is an outlier and transient or if it is the beginning of a new trend that invalidates the GW theory.

I have to tell you, again speaking as a statistician, that 8 years of up and down data, not uniformly below trend, does not give me very much confidence that a long term trend has been broken. The rule of thumb for the possibility that a trend line has been broken is 6 or more data points in sequence above or below the regression line. The data I've seen has not shown enough sequential data below the trend line to warrant a break from trend. That means, the probability is high that the last 8 years have been outliers caused by a transient event.

gis.ncdc.noaa.gov{9F65B798-DE55-482B-9F37-19AEDA36691C}

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