Well, at least the aircraft carriers are out of the picture. Now there remain only oranges. <g> You're still equating overall data and forties data.
assuming the survival rate for those in this age range is the same as the overall survival rate.
You can't assume that. Besides having more aggressive cancers, younger women have denser breasts, which makes diagnosis more iffy.
younger women tend to have more aggressive breast cancers than older women, which may explain why survival rates are lower among younger women.
Five Year Survival Rate By Age
Younger than 45--81%
Ages 45-64--85%
Ages 65 and older-86%
Source: American Cancer Society
Cutting mammograms in the selected age group in half, one could surmise would produce perhaps half as big a reduction as calculated, say 3.4%.
Assuming for the sake of argument that your methodology is correct, 3.4 is a lot closer to 1 than to 11.
That "wash" calculation of yours has to be way off
"We can find that somewhere around 15% of diagnoses occur in the forties. (We don't know how many of those were found via mammogram.) And that 15.1% of deaths occur between 45 and 55, which would be the age range that determines survival for a 40 something diagnosis. Even allowing that some of those deaths could be women diagnosed younger than forty and just over 50, that's pretty much a WASH."
What is wrong with that logic? I understand that you've offered an alternate methodology but what's wrong with the original logic?
If 15 percent of the deaths occur between 45 and 55, then who are those women? They would have to be women diagnosed under 55. Some of them would be women diagnosed under 40, but that's a very, very small number. Some of them would be women diagnosed between 50 and 55 and who died quickly. That would be a bigger number but, given the five year survival rate, not very big. That leaves us with the vast majority of those deaths occuring to women diagnosed in their forties. Bear in mind that survival rate means living five years after diagnosis. If you look at deaths up to age 55, you've given the first of those forty-somethings fifteen years to die. And it would seem that most of them did. The rates go down pretty quickly with increasing time.
"The [overall] survival rates from diagnosis for 10-year period is around 76% and 5-year survival rate is 86%."
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