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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread

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To: Win Smith who wrote (26462)	12/7/2009 7:50:15 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) of 36917

This is the "divergence problem". the "decline" in the tree ring data for recent years, is pretty irrelevant since direct measurements of temperature are obviously more reliable that tree ring data reconstructions The proxies do vary significantly from the direct measurements of temperature going back to 1960. The earlier divergences are unknown. This casts doubt on the usefulness of the tree ring data before direct measurements were available. Combine that with the lack of skill in the statistical methods of Mann, et al the so called "hockey stick" reconstruction of past temperatures is misleading at best. The direct temperature records, which is what the Wikepedia page shows, are not disputed. Those records are neither fabricated nor are they direct temperature records. The direct readings have been subject to may adjustments, so much so that the adjustments overshadow the resulting trend in temperatures. This also means that the use of the temperature trend in analyzing climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases is in doubt.

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