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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: Joseph K. Medici who wrote (159)11/2/1997 5:16:00 AM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (2) of 118717
 
I probably should have phrased the question more specifically: if you hold a stock which has risen a bit but not to your target, and you see a sudden downturn coming either in that stock or the general market, your choices are:

--Set a stop-loss and accept getting stopped out
--Sell on the first indication of trouble and look to buy in again later (i.e. cheaper)
--Ride it out because you believe the stock must inevitably reach fair value and setbacks along the way are to be expected

Fundamental investors will tell you that option number three will produce the most profits over the time; none of us are smart enough to time every market top or chart top in a single company. Stop-loss orders are a good way to protect against mistaken judgment (what, I made a mistake? Never!) about a company's value, and to preserve your capital over the long term.

Still, I look at some new companies I bought after the crash and dream about having bought them late on the first day of the big boom. Unfortunately "late in the day" in New York is now 1AM in Mauritius and my wife would not take kindly to me watching the tape that late.

The 1/3-1/3-1/3 approach may also work better over time. I am concerned about a)paying lots of commissions on relatively small $$ investments and b)missing out on big gainers whose value I underestimated. NSPK is an example; I would have aimed for a 50% gain but I held on during the rally for 70%. Even then I missed the top by two points.

This issue deserves a lot more discussion. Have at it, boys and girls.

Good luck to all this week.
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