INDEX UPDATE
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I just finished my analysis, and the technicals are in the mid-range with an upside bias for the overall market. As I said over and over, when the technicals are in the mid-range it can go either way and the direction of the bias is NOT at their strongest levels, actually, technically, it is the weakest.
At this time the technical signals are leaning toward upside movement or triangular oscilation (to a lesser degree).
The probability that the market will drop back to the bottom (DOUBLE BOTTOM), has decreased substantially.
I have just raised the bottom for this market to 7300-7350 (on a closing basis).
If Monday is an up day of 50+ DOW points, such will be one more signal substantiating my TA that the bottom of 7000 will not be tested again.
Please do not interpret that we will start moving up strongly yet, since we could also be triangularly oscillating.
Triangular oscillation is very hard to forcast, but my TA is hinting that if the DOW stays within the 7350-7550 range for the next week, it will substantiate such belief. The important issue about TRIANGULAR OSCILLATION is that once the apex is achieved there will a surge in either direction. At this point the direction will be upwards. I am estimating the apex of the triangle to be around 7400-7475. If by the end of this week/early next week we stay in the range mentioned above, I will start loading up at 7400. I will be watching carefully for the formation of the triangle pattern, since the surge once/after the apex is defined is normally very substantial. Please keep in mind that I am not saying that we are definitely in a triangle pattern yet, further comfirmation is still required, although there are technical hints that we are heading in that direction.
Sorry if I am going into the theory end too much, but I feel it is important to share some of my thoughts rather than just say up/down/flat for the market. |
