Vectori, Thanks , for a very informative and excellent post.
Haolin, I get the impression that you are a "trader" and have found it works for you I guess and therefore want everyone else to see it that way. Over the long term I failed miserably at taking a trading position in stocks.
SG is a along term investor, I would assume, as am I.
Based on what Vectori posted it will be a year or more before AVIR has a marketable product. Till than I would assume the stock will be essentially event driven, as is the case with most developement stage companies.. Unlike earnings which come up quarterly , the timing of events or for that matter, even foreseeing an event, is abit more difficult. They don't happen on a preannounced date. That to me spells very high risk for the trader. On the other hand the long term investor can take an initial position and accumulate, often on weakness, and have a whole year to build a very sound position.
As to whether the stock is hi or low today is anybodies guess IMO,( the recent secondary did go off at $27). With no news for awhile it could go lower, but this stock already has a Wall Street following, sitting ready to prop it up so how low will be low ( A really bad market could take it to the teens as they just did, perhaps). But than I think we'll see news pretty regularly out of this company for the next year or so. Just to much going on.
I do feel that sometime in 1999 AVIR just could be a lot higher, given that all the events go off as scheduled. :-}
Trading AVIR successfully is going to take alot of guts and luck, ,IMO. |
