Steve,
There are a few problems with your scenario.
1. Some of Ancor's competitors are much more aggressive and have more cash to be aggressive with. A good example is Sun. Their initial storage offering is a good example, as well as their marketing style and claims to be the preeminent FC storage company. I have no doubt that we will see another big Sun demonstration and storage record using an FC fabric. It would not surprise me to see the switch manufacturer's name left out. You certainly don't hear that Ancor's switch was central to the first FC storage that they shipped. As it is they are currently aggressively trying to lock up the low to mid end market. To counter this, Ancor needs to partner with a RAID manufacturer so they can offer a turnkey storage system. This is especially true if they want to sell to companies who don't have much networking expertise on site.
2. We haven't heard much from Brocade lately, but if you read their latest Silkworm page, they are apparently trying to develop different ways to connect their switches - build multistage configurations. The rumor about farming out their FC-AL development to LSI is unconfirmed, but they have to be working on it to stay competitive. The question is - what happens if the Silkworm implements these changes or to our horror, leapfrogs to a 2 gig switch while the OEMS are being considered? Look at how long the Sun decision is being out off since the MKII came on the scene. Remember how several Ancor detractors told us about how the Silkworm had the Sun deal locked up, and that it would have been announced by now? Can Ancor, given their current cash situation tolerate these delays?
3. The explanation about "product cycles" just doesn't fly for me. It apparently wasn't a factor with GeoQuest, when they went out to an oil company and replaced their ATM LAN with Ancor switches in 8 hours. That is the kind of product cycle I want.
4. Leeza Rodriguez' post suggested to me that Ancor insiders may have an additional interest in the new policy of "underpromise, overdeliver" - namely they can pick up more stock for less money. The other competing interest that I have mentioned before is the interest Ancor competitors have in seeing them fail. They have a unique product and patent. I have no doubt that if Ancor failed, you would see someone mass producing and marketing their switches under a different name.
For me this is a horse race, Ancor needs some cash flow from OEMS as soon as possible. I don't want another Reg D and dilution. |
