just received inputs from swiss buddy on what they are thinking, and i quote:
FYI, here a summary of what our Head of Research presented to our global MD conference 10 days ago regarding outlook for 2010:
Scenario
Cont'd recovery, focussing on EM
Equities fairly priced, but extremely loose monetary policy + cont'd recovery support further appreciation
Commodities could be best performing asset class
USD still under pressure
Risks/Dark side
Debt to GDP levels in advanced economies
Moral hazard resulting from >50% of UST's being held by foreigners
Possibility of asset price bubbles forming
Demographic time bomb
Regulatory risks
Emerging Market Eight: China, Brazil, India, Sth-Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Sth-Africa (EM8)
These EM8 currently account for 17.5% of global GDP, but grow on average 6x faster than the advanced economies
Investment Ideas:
Quality large cap equities with EM exposure (e.g. Nestle)
Cyclical small & mid-caps
EM equities
Alternative Energy Equities
Short-/Medium-term bonds (A/BBB)
Short USD
Real Estate (EM now, Advanced economies later, incl CH)
Commodities (copper, platinum), caution re potential gold overshoot in short term
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