By this time, even the enthusiast/hobbiest has decided he doesn't need a 300Mhz chip.ÿ Currently, for example, the 233Mhz chip will run every "necessary" application on the market, exceedingly well.ÿ Intel won't see $90 a share again (let alone $100) for the foreseeable future.ÿ The Disk Drive sector, for example, has had it's day in the sun, too.ÿ For that matter, any part of the box that keeps its price over $1,000.00 will struggle, then die.ÿ Any company that can't sell the box for under $1,000.00 will wither and die.ÿ "New" technology like DVD will come down fast and hard, too.ÿ Like always, demand being the key, we simply aren't stupid enough anymore (computer-ignorant) to pay $2,000 for a system.ÿ In another six months, if a box maker can't sell a system with DVD and monitor for sub $1,000, it will go broke.ÿ Next to go will be software.ÿ For example, when users realize that the WordPerfect Suite does everything better for a tenth the price of MSFT, Bill's empire will have to diversify.ÿ
Then technology will change or shift to something else that will fascinate us beyond our ability to withstand buying it (as though any of us truly needed any of the computers we wasted our money on over the past 10 years!).ÿ In the next wave of technology, computers will no longer be an "art form".ÿ They will be as efficient as calculators and TV's.ÿ "Crashing" will mean getting your money back, not "re-booting".ÿÿ The next thing people will waste their money on (whatever it will be) will take us through another whole cycle of change just as exciting as computers have been.ÿ But, the point is, we are on the brink of that future today.ÿ The industries are already preparing to shift.ÿ Think tanks are burning the midnight oil.ÿ Finding those companies- the next WINTEL's (and AAPL's)- is the key.ÿ Who knows, maybe those companies themselves will be the new MSFT's and INTC's, all over again.ÿ Or maybe there are some young techno-nerds out there right now, sitting on the idea.ÿ Maybe they're skinny, geek-looking fools who can't get a date, needing a bath, and working in their garage with biotechnological chemicals that will run PC's 1,000 times faster than any 500Mhz chip.ÿ The idea of "waiting" after typing "enter" won't even be a consideration.
Following all of these different SI threads for the last 10 months or so, I can't help but think how pathetic some of them are, flattering themselves that their company will come back from last Monday.ÿ IMO that fully half the previous high-flyers will do nothing but languish for at least the next six months.ÿ Many of the companies that support disk drives and mother-boards, etc.ÿ Their profit margins will be trimmed into the toilet by the demand for the $1,000.00 system.ÿ Only the truly smart will survive.
Greg
p.s. sorry for rambling. |
