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Technology Stocks : The New QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range
QCOM 176.18+2.0%10:15 AM EST
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To: lml who wrote (5589)12/16/2009 10:39:17 AM
From: manalagi  Read Replies (1) of 9129
 
The Toaster Competition is sponsored by Hedgefund, hence, he will decide who the winners will be. There will be two winners: 1. The High and Low and 2. The Closing Price.

There can be several methodologies that can be used:

1. For the Closing Price:
Since this is not the TV version of "The Price is Right" where you have to guess the closest price to the actual without going over , you can just decide who has the absolute value deviation from the actual closing price.

2. The High and Low for the year.
This is more involved:
a. Are we going to use the absolute low and high or the lowest and highest closing prices?

b. If we use the sum of the absolute value deviations of high and low, there will be a built in bias. For example:
Let's assume that the high and low are 48 and 32

- person A predicts H/L as 48 and 28, the sum of the absolute values is 4.
- person B predicts H/L as 50 and 30, the sum of the absolute values is 4.

Is person A a better predictor than B or vice versa.

c. To give the winner the person that predicts both the closest H and L, we can use the variance method:

- The sum of squares of the deviations:

Person A, the result will be 0**2 + (- 4)**2 = 16
Person B: 2**2 + 2**2 = 8

Thus B will be the winner.

If you have other methodology that will be fair measure, just post for Hedgefund to consider.

Happy Investing

Paul
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