Hello, I am new to this company, first hearing about in Forbes about 6 months ago. With the recent drop I started to do some research, most of which was going through the posts on this thread. I am incredibly impressed with the high caliber of posts here, Maxwell and others are extremely knowledgeable about the technological and financial apsects of this company. I am a software person with little physics/engineering background, so I would appreciate any comments on whether my "summary" of the Cymer story is accurate:
1. Semi industry will soon be migrating to .25u
2. Cymer makes DVU lasers that allow production of .25u semiconductors
3. Cymer has around 90% of the market for these lasers
4. Cymer sells these lasers to 4-5 stepper manufacturers
5. Every semi company (INTC, MOT, etc) will soon have to buy steppers with DUV lasers
6. Cymer's competitors have inferior products
7. It is possible that Cymer's market share might shrink but they should remain dominant (*** key assertion ***)
8. Cymer is ahead of its competitors with a ArF 193nm laser
9. The ArF should be introduced in '98 and will allow .18u
10. Cymer's R&D is working on a 154nm laser for .13u
11. cymer is ahead of the competition on the 154nm laser
12. Below .13u X-ray lithography is required, but there are many complications to implementing this technology (quantum effects), so for the next several years there is no real alternative to DUV lasers.
13. Therefore CYMI should prosper for at least next 3-5 years
14. Every fab on the planet will eventually have a stepper with DUV laser, and most of these will have CYMI lasers
15. There will be repeat purchases, first for KrF, then for ArF, and then for difluoride
16. Per Maxwell's estimates, CYMI should earn close to $4/share in 2000, yielding perhaps a $100 stock.
I'd greatly appreciate any feedback on what I've gotten right and wrong. I'm planning on buying soon, especially if the stock drops tomorrow as people here have suggested. I'd really like to get the story straight though, so I know I've bought for the right reasons and won't panic if it tanks after I buy.
Thanks in advance. |
