30 years ago, in my BP Oil days, we thought that the time had arrived with $40 a barrel oil, and spent umpty$millions on alternative fuels. I was driving around in a methanol car as part of the alternative fuels programmes I was running.
< they will, prices will someday require them.>
They all fizzled to nothing.
New Zealand's government spent $billions on "Think Big" which was all money down the gurgler. Think Big was largely around energy projects. Some of the projects are still in existence such as the Clyde dam, New Zealand Steel, electrification of the main trunk railway, a huge cash donate to Marsden Point refinery, but they were not economic.
It's difficult enough for private enterprise to come up with good investments. It's hopelessly inefficient for governments to try it. They always get it wrong to a greater or lesser extent.
Given the amount of coal, tars, gas, shale and oil there is, it seems unlikely that alternative fuels will be needed before history has made some major paradigm shifts such as reaching Peak People combined with technological transitions.
There will be plenty of economic opportunities for things such as photovoltaics, wind turbines, wood as fuel, maybe fusion and what have you, but it's going to be hard to come up with things as cheap as coal which is highly concentrated energy.
Mqurice |
