I researched Saxo's previous annual predictions....not too accurate, but that it is the nature of taking specific positions on events to be.
I like P2'a thinking.
When a professional prophet makes predictions, only the few that come to pass are mentioned. The many that are flat wrong never seem to make the light of day.
With that in mind, here are a few of mine:
1. Sovereign trouble, begun with Dubai, then rolling into Greece and Spain, then perhaps the UK, then into another SHTF moment, is possible.
2. I know you don't want to hear this, but I see trouble for China. Its model is to produce cheaply, save, export and finance the customer. But without healthy markets into which to export, growth and prosperity will inevitably come to a standstill. In addition, China does not have independent energy sources, particularly oil, and this is definitely required. Plus, it is becoming, perhaps by necessity, the most Keynesian polity in the world. The incipient or already existing bubbles will be deadly when they burst.
I don't like to see what I think is happening to China for it is not good for the globe. But it does bring me to the third point.
3. The combination of sovereign trouble with a possible crash in China when bubbles pop, means that it is possible that 2010 - particularly at its latter months - may be a repeat of 2008.
4. And I also think, and I think I can say this with great confidence, that no one will remember this except me, and only if I am halfway right. vbg. |
