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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (234041)12/22/2009 8:20:18 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuyRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
It's all about how one wants to twist and interpret the data, which you have a habit of slanting to the bearish side.

All I wrote today was that people shouldn't be fooled by the decline in months-of-supply. We aren't approaching a normal market with 4 to 6 months of supply.

Once again, not sure how you're getting from point A to B? Do you discount the fact that housing sales are typically slow at this time of the year? Are you insinuating that there won't be the typical housing pick-up in the Spring, which is just around the corner? What will that to do sales? Much of the non-free economic commentary I read de-emphasizes the importance of the tax credit. You act like every sale that has occurred is because of the tax credit. I didn't even bother repeating the RECESSION is over.

On the excess inventory, some people only think in terms of 'existing home inventory' and forget all the other measures of excess housing. That is just another obvious point.

Actually no, it's not obvious. Do you have official statistics on "shadow inventory"? I have strong links to the best minds on the buy-side, have access to he best research out there, and I sure don't. I can tell you this. The hard data I DO HAVE shows that pipeline inventory of REO's are at their lowest point since the crisis began and a far more important fact: haircuts have been reduced substantially as the market clearing price has been established.

And I also pointed out that house prices are now falling again. Well, duh. That is just a fact.

Thanks for pointing out a silly useless "fact". More important than a MoM fall in housing prices is that housing prices have ESTABLISHED a low.

I don't claim any great insights - I was just stating the obvious.

So am I.
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