The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: GST who wrote (234451)	12/27/2009 3:32:33 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (4) of 306849

GST, I wrote up a few thoughts yesterday ... calculatedriskblog.com I think the 2nd half of 2009 is coming in about as expected with most of the increase due to changes in private inventories. Right now I expect 2010 to be sluggish and choppy and unemployment to remain high. There are downside risks, but I don't think we will see a double dip recession. There is a lot of uncertainty about government action too. As Geithner implied in the recent Newsweek interview, the Government will do almost anything to support house prices. Just this week they uncapped Fannie and Freddie and extended many HAMP trial mods for another month (postponing a number of foreclosures). newsweek.com Geithner: "We were very careful from the beginning ... to say that we are going to focus the bulk of the financial force on bringing interest rates and mortgage rates down to cushion the fall in housing prices and help stabilize home values, which will feed into people's basic sense of financial stability." We might also see another stimulus package (they will call it a jobs package). In general my forecast is boring this year. It was more fun in Dec 2006 calling for a recession by the end of 2007 (made it by one month!), or early this year calling for a 2nd half recovery. I think the robust recovery view is incorrect because it is hard to imagine a strong recovery without a significant pickup in residential investment (RI) - and it is hard to imagine a significant pickup in RI until the excess inventory is worked down. But on the other hand, I don't expect another collapse in RI either. If I'm wrong, I hope it is because I'm too pessimistic and the recovery is stronger than I expect, as opposed to being too optimistic and the recession continues. best wishes

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next